Following in the steps of the Pink and White seeding preview, let's do the same for the 70th annual Blue and Gold Tournament, held Dec. 26 and Dec. 28-30.
Here’s my take on how I’d seed the field. I feel a lot safer about my predictions on the 1-through-4 seeds than I do the 5-through-8 seeds.
The general theme this year is: there are a lot of big-school teams (Hillcrest, Branson, Aurora, Rogersville, Marshfield) on the fringe/bubble for earning a seed. Much like the NCAA Tournament, these big-school teams are likely to bump out some small-school teams that may have better records at the moment.
Disclaimer: As I write this Monday afternoon, there are several Monday night and Tuesday night games that could alter seeding. These games include: Crane-Reeds Spring, Conway-Fordland, Rogersville-West Plains, Marshfield-Camdenton, Hillcrest-Willard, Parkview-Republic, Ava-Hartville, Mountain Grove-Mansfield and Branson-Kickapoo.
Thus, the following seed projections are based on games through Sunday, Dec. 13. I won’t do specific bracket alignments/pairings as a lot of circumstances (travel, recent and upcoming non-conference games) go into that. For now, we’ll just focus on the seeds.
No. 1 seeds (Nixa, Kickapoo)
Pretty clear cut-here. Nixa will be seeking its record sixth straight Blue and Gold title; no program has ever won more than three straight B&Gs. Unless Chase Allen’s ankle injury keeps him out for this tournament, the Eagles are in good shape to win six straight.
Kickapoo’s our only ranked Class 5 team and is coming off a Friday night win over Champaign (Ill.) Central. The Chiefs play at Branson on Tuesday night. Barring an upset loss against the Pirates, Kickapoo’s Class 5 status probably gets it the other No. 1 seed over Bolivar.
No. 2 seeds (Bolivar, Ozark)
If Kickapoo wasn’t in the field this year, the Liberators would get the other 1-seed. Bolivar’s 3-0 and recently posted an impressive road win at Hillcrest in a matchup of 2015 Final Four teams. Bolivar played well against Kickapoo in the jamboree, but with no common opponents between the two, I’m thinking the Liberators would need a Branson win over Kickapoo to snag the other 1-seed.
Ozark started the season by winning the Republic Tournament, which probably locked up a 2 seed. Last week, Ozark overcame a slow start to win at Central, but then was blown out by Blue Valley Northwest (Kan.) in the Ozark Mountain Shootout. With conference foe Nixa and Kickapoo (whom the Tigers play this Friday night) as 1 seeds, we could see a familiar finals matchup in one bracket.
No. 3 seeds (Hartville, Clever)
The Eagles are this year’s small-school juggernaut among the Blue and Gold field. Hartville’s 5-0 overall with a Clever Tournament championship to its credit, all five of those victories coming by double digits. Hartville will be a tough out for any of the big-school team come the later rounds, but the Eagles could have trouble defending post players such as Brandon Emmert (Bolivar) and Chase Allen (Nixa).
After that, it gets interesting. There’s a logjam of Class 3 teams in contention for the remaining 3-through-6 seeds, along with Class 4 and 5 teams (Aurora, Republic, West Plains) that may have a say.
For now, I’ll go with Clever as the other 3-seed. The Blue Jays had nice victories over Conway and Strafford last week. They’re far from a lock for this spot, but with wins over three other teams (Fair Grove being the other) in contention for similar seed spots, Clever’s resume stands out a bit more.
No. 4 seeds (Fair Grove, Crane)
This year’s tournament is a chance for the small-school teams to shine – at least early on. In most years, these 3-through-5 seed spots would be gobbled up by the second-tier Class 4 and 5 schools. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Class 2 and 3 schools take all six of the 3-through-5 seeds. More on that in the next paragraph.
Fair Grove enters this week 6-1 and could lock up a mid-level seed with a Tuesday night win at Hollister. Crane’s closest game thus far came in its season opener, a 66-54 win over Ash Grove. Coach Craig Campbell still has the Pirates rolling in his first season at the helm. Tanner Gold (19.6 points per game, 6.4 assists per game) and Dalton Hayes (16.2 ppg) have helped replace the scoring loss of Zach Chastain, and the Pirates’ young bigs are a year older/stronger from last season.
No. 5 seeds (Republic, West Plains)
There’s more uncertainty, as I could see these two big-school teams landing here, or dropping down to a 6 or 7 seed. There’s a pretty significant advantage of getting a 5-6 seed, and avoiding, say, Bolivar or Ozark in the quarterfinals. It’s close, but I’ll go with Republic and West Plains at No. 5 in favor of Conway and Mtn. Grove.
Republic lost to two Arkansas schools and beat Rogersville in its own tournament, then beat Carl Junction at home last week. A road win at Parkview on Tuesday night would likely lock up a top-6 seed for Republic.
West Plains has a rematch with Rogersville, a team it beat in the Republic Tournament, on Tuesday night in a game that will have seeding implications. If, say, Rogersville beats West Plains to even the series, these seeds become even more jumbled.
No. 6 seeds (Conway, Mtn. Grove)
Conway won the Strafford Tournament, but with losses to Clever and Mtn. Grove last week, the Bears could drop from the 6-spot and see a big-school team like Aurora or Rogersville go here.
Mtn. Grove seems like a pretty safe bet to land a 5-7 seed. The only thing that may hold the Panthers back is their strength of schedule, which admittedly isn’t as good as West Plains, Hillcrest, Rogersville or Strafford’s has been. However, a win Tuesday night against Mansfield would push the Panthers to 6-0 and they feature a premier player in SCA Player of the Year D.J. McNew.
At first, I had Republic-West Plains as the 6 seeds, and Conway-Mtn. Grove as the 5 seeds. Then, I flipped them. A couple of times. I really think it could go any way here in the 5-6 slots.
No. 7 seeds (Aurora, Strafford)
Aurora’s lost to Strafford in the semifinals of the Strafford Tournament had a significant impact on these seeding projections. You can’t seed Aurora above Strafford or Conway, since Conway went on to beat Strafford. On paper, the Houn’ Dawgs have the talent to be in the 4-5 seed territory, but that lost to Strafford is holding them back at the moment in terms of seeding. Aurora’s home game this Friday night against Fair Grove will tell a lot about how dangerous the Dawgs’ could be as a 7 seed.
Strafford’s best win of the season came against Aurora. The Indians, 3-2 overall, played Conway and Clever to single-digit losses. While fellow Mid-Lakes Conference schools Stockton and Skyline have better overall records at the moment, Strafford has faced better competition and I think that will give the Indians the edge in grabbing one of the final four seeds.
No. 8 seeds (Rogersville, Hillcrest)
Fans of Class 2 and Class 3 schools will cry big-school bias here, but on paper, I’d lean toward these two teams in a head-to-head matchup against the unseeded “bubble” teams. The records aren’t great – Rogersville is 2-4; Hillcrest is 0-4 after two close losses at the Fayetteville (Ark.) Tournament over the weekend – but competition level and common opponents need to be factored in here. For example, Hillcrest played Harrison (Ark.) to a 61-56 loss at the Fayetteville Tournament. Branson lost to Harrison by 30 in its season opener. Rogersville’s four losses were to teams that are (Ozark, West Plains, Republic), or would be (Rolla), seeded above them in this tournament.
In the end, the 7 or 8 seeds don’t matter all too much. If there’s any question of a team being on the “bubble” that gets left out, they’ll often throw that team in against a 7 or 8 seed in the first round. So, get ready for some potential first round matchups such as: Skyline-Rogersville, Stockton-Hillcrest, Marshfield-Aurora, Strafford-Branson, etc.
Unseeded teams
Teams in bold are “bubble” teams for seed consideration. Like I just mentioned, the committee will often throw these bubble teams against the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds in the first round and let ‘em play it out if there’s any dispute.
Ava
Branson
Buffalo
Camdenton
Greenwood
Hollister
Lebanon
Mansfield
Marshfield
Mount Vernon
Reeds Spring
Skyline
Spokane
Stockton
Willard
Willow Springs
Brackets are announced Wednesday morning, so we have less than 48 hours to find out how right or wrong I am about these seeds.
