By Justin Sampson (Ozarks Sports Zone)
SPRINGFIELD — Jake Burger admitted it took a bit to shake off the thrill of leaving Razorback Nation with more baseball to play.
Keith Guttin said he simply took a little time to sleep.
After four games, one being a 6-hour comedy of stoppages and non-stoppages, Missouri State earned its ticket to Forth Worth, Texas for a best-of-three series with TCU in the Super Regional, starting at 5 p.m. at Lupton Stadium on Saturday.
How They Got Here
MISSOURI STATE
Picked to finish third in the Missouri Valley Conference, the Bears fell one game shy of a perfect league record at 18-1 to claim the regular season title. An overall 43-18 campaign earned them the No. 1 seed as the host in the conference tournament, but MSU took a surprising 1-0 loss to Illinois State on a late first night.
They stayed alive with wins over Southern Illinois, Wichita State, and ISU before the Redbirds took the rubber match to eliminate the Bears one game shy of the championship matchup.
MSU earned an at-large bid as the No. 2 seed in the Fayetteville Regional, beating Oklahoma State and winning an ultimately best-of-three series with Arkansas to advance to its second Super Regional in three years.
TCU
The Horned Frogs were No. 1 in the USA Today and D1Baseball.com Polls entering the season. As the favorites to win the Big 12, they went 45-16 to share the regular season crown with Texas Tech before falling to Texas as the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament.
TCU earned the 6th national seed in the NCAA Tournament, its highest ever, and outscored Central Connecticut, Virginia, and Dallas Baptist 29-10 to sweep its way to a fourth straight Super Regional.
Last Meeting
The Bears are 2-0 all-time against the Horned Frogs with the only two meetings coming in Springfield back in the 1990 season. MSU won 26-2 (yep) and 5-4.
Common Opponents
The non-conference slate was not kind to MSU, who went 0-3 against Big 12 foes Oklahoma State and Kansas in the regular season before knocking off OSU 6-5 over the weekend. TCU went 6-2 against the Jayhawks and Cowboys.
The most obvious common matchup is Dallas Baptist, the MVC Tournament Champions, who went a combined 0-6 against MSU and TCU, including a 15-3 Regional clincher for the Horned Frogs.
“In terms of a scouting report, you reach out to everyone they played in non-league games and see who will help you with information,” Guttin said. “They were regular season co-champion in the Big 12, which was the highest-rated league this season. Obviously they’ve had a great year and a storied program.”
What to Watch for
These teams are similar in several categories, particularly plate discipline. MSU has drawn 346 walks, the fourth most in the nation, but only five more than TCU. The Bears have scored 430 runs to 423 for the Horned Frogs. MSU’s .278 team batting average is just 6 points higher than its upcoming opponents’. TCU averages 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings, good for 14th in the nation, while the 9.0 averaged by the Bears clocked in at 22nd.
When it comes to fielding percentage, they are one one-thousandth of a point apart.
“They are similar to us in the sense of grinding out at-bats and the fact that they’re never out of it. It should be a good matchup,” Burger said.
The glaring advantages come from home runs, where the Bears clobbered 78 to TCU’s 54, and stolen bases, where TCU is one of 15 teams in the country to swipe 100 bags. MSU stole 55 this season.
On the mound, the Bears will have to solve sophomore Jared Janczak and his svelte 1.78 ERA, good for 13th in the country, to go with a 9-0 record.
Offensively, TCU is led by junior catcher Evan Skoug, a teammate of Burger’s on the USA Collegiate National Team over the summer. He leads the Horned Frogs with 18 home runs and is tied with Cardinals first baseman Matt Carpenter for fifth on the program’s RBI list.
For Missouri State, Burger and Jeremy Eierman remain consistent threats to leave the yard, tied for 6th in the nation with 22 home runs apiece. Eierman produced three of the four biggest hits for MSU in the Fayetteville Regional: his walk-off two-run home run to lift the Bears over Oklahoma State and another two-run bomb to give them a 3-1 lead over Arkansas in Monday’s clincher.
Justin Paulsen was the next big bat for MSU, going 5-for-16 with 4 RBI, 3 walks, and a mammoth two-run shot that helped the Bears grab their first win over Arkansas.
“We’ve got to win two games. That’s it,” Guttin said. “If we play like we did this past weekend, then we’ve got a good chance. If we can win in Fayetteville, we can win anywhere.”
Tale of the Tape
D1Baseball.com Poll:
- TCU – 6th
- Missouri State – 22nd
USA Today Poll:
- TCU – 7th
- Missouri State – 22nd
Earned Run Average:
- MSU – 3.72
- TCU – 4.07
Home Runs:
- MSU – 78 (13th in NCAA)
- TCU – 54
Batting Average:
- MSU – .278
- TCU – .272
On Base Percentage:
- MSU – .393 (19th in NCAA)
- TCU – .379
Strikeouts/9 Innings:
- TCU – 9.3 (14th in NCAA)
- MSU – 9.0 (22nd)
Fielding Percentage:
- MSU – .975
- TCU – .974
Base on Balls:
- MSU – 346 (4th in NCAA)
- TCU – 341 (6th)
Runs Scored:
- MSU – 430
- TCU – 423
Stolen Bases:
- TCU – 100
- MSU – 55
Top Starters:
- Jared Janczak – 1.78 ERA (13th), 9-0 in 12 starts, 16 ER, 81 K
- Doug Still – 2.66 ERA, 8-2 in 16 starts, 29 ER, 85 K
Top Sluggers:
- TCU – Evan Skoug (.278, 65 hits, 18 HR, 62 RBI, .547 slug %)
- MSU – Jake Burger (.333, 80 hits, 22 HR, 65 RBI, .663 slug %) Jeremy Eierman (.312, 74 hits, 22 HR, 67 RBI, .671 slug %)
Schedule:
- Game 1 – Saturday, 5:00 p.m.
- Game 2 – Sunday, 5:00 p.m.
- Game 3 – Monday, 1:00/4:00/7:00/8:30 p.m. (if necessary)
